Artificial Intelligence
When we think about artificial intelligence we think in terms of something that can think like a human but better. Science fiction movies like the Terminator series have raised concerns about what such an AI would want. Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking, among others, have raised concerns about humanity becoming irrelevant once it is surpassed in intelligence and innovation by its own creations. It has been suggested that the first artificial intelligence smarter than a human being will be the last thing invented by humans.
I have no doubt, there will eventually be computers which can think like humans, learn and innovate but let's look at things which are likely to happen in a shorter span of time.
Self Driving Cars: this is something which is already nearly ready for introduction into society. The major problem with self driving cars is having to account for erratic, rule-breaking human drivers on the roads. Once more and more cars become self-driving, the safety factor can be enhanced by nearby vehicles communicating with each other so that they do not 'surprise' each other. Eventually there could be a centralised network regulating traffic to make it most efficient.
Of course, self-driving cars combined with ride-hailing apps (similar to Uber) would make it unnecessary for anyone to own a vehicle of their own. It would be much simpler to summon the nearest available vehicle to take you from wherever you are to wherever you need to go. Parking woes would also end. Ride-sharing algorithms would make the transport system much more energy efficient than individual humans owning and driving their own vehicles.
Replacement of Human Labour for Unpleasant Tasks: Many humans are engaged at tasks that are unpleasant and could easily be replaced by robots. When we think about robots we think of humanoid mechanical intelligences. However, there is no good reason to shape a robot like a human. For instance, a robot designed to clean the sewers would require limbs to move, lights to see, arms to clear obstructions and be of a size which can fit into the pipes. The level of processing power required would be rudimentary. Such a robot could easily be devised with today's technology. It would be similarly easy to replace many human professions such as garbage collection, brick laying, mining, construction work and so on.
There are many tasks which we think of as skilled that can be replaced today. Many diagnostic radiology tasks could be replaced by software more accurate than humans already. Entire fields of medicine could be replaced by computers with today's technology.
Of course, it would be a good thing if humans can be spared hard, unpleasant work. They would be able to focus on work that they enjoy where they can be creative. Scientists, artists, singers, composers, writers. We could all be what we want to be. But how would our economic systems adapt to a state of plenty?
It could go two ways. We could stay with the kind of capitalism of which the US is the most overt example. Find a job, work hard and you get paid. If you can't find a job or if you do not have the skills to do the jobs which are in demand then you're on your own. With increasing automation, more and more people become unemployed and descend into poverty while those who control the factories and the supply chains and establish legal claims to wealth get richer and richer. That is simply not sustainable. The Chinese science fiction writer, Liu Cixin, imagines a time in the not-so-distant future in which this trend is carried to its logical conclusion and one person controls all the wealth on the planet and everyone else lives at his mercy.
Or, we could change our systems to ensure that the basics are taken care of for everyone. Food, water, shelter, education, clothing, healthcare are available to everyone but, for the luxuries, one has to work. Work would be a choice, not an imposition. There would still be competition for the most desirable jobs but the highest remuneration would be for the jobs which require the most innovation and original thinking.
This is not a vision for the far distant future. I am 48 years old and I will probably see this decision made, in bits and pieces, all over the world, in my life time.
A little further in the future, we will probably, if we get past this first self-imposed trap, develop the kind of artificial intelligence that presently lies in the realms of science fiction. My favorite characters in any kind of literature are Asimov's R. Giskard Reventlov, an AI who died so that humanity may progress and R Daneel Olivaw, his friend who then guided humanity through that progress.
Of course, mechanical artificial intelligences with infinite patience and the ability to rebuild themselves would be ideal to explore the rest of the universe.
Might they decide that biological humans are dangerous, evil, irresponsible and need to be eradicated? Perhaps. Would they be right to do so? Probably. What do we know? We're only human. Maybe they would be compassionate enough to merely contain us. Keep us from doing harm. A human zoo.
I have no doubt, there will eventually be computers which can think like humans, learn and innovate but let's look at things which are likely to happen in a shorter span of time.
Self Driving Cars: this is something which is already nearly ready for introduction into society. The major problem with self driving cars is having to account for erratic, rule-breaking human drivers on the roads. Once more and more cars become self-driving, the safety factor can be enhanced by nearby vehicles communicating with each other so that they do not 'surprise' each other. Eventually there could be a centralised network regulating traffic to make it most efficient.
Of course, self-driving cars combined with ride-hailing apps (similar to Uber) would make it unnecessary for anyone to own a vehicle of their own. It would be much simpler to summon the nearest available vehicle to take you from wherever you are to wherever you need to go. Parking woes would also end. Ride-sharing algorithms would make the transport system much more energy efficient than individual humans owning and driving their own vehicles.
Replacement of Human Labour for Unpleasant Tasks: Many humans are engaged at tasks that are unpleasant and could easily be replaced by robots. When we think about robots we think of humanoid mechanical intelligences. However, there is no good reason to shape a robot like a human. For instance, a robot designed to clean the sewers would require limbs to move, lights to see, arms to clear obstructions and be of a size which can fit into the pipes. The level of processing power required would be rudimentary. Such a robot could easily be devised with today's technology. It would be similarly easy to replace many human professions such as garbage collection, brick laying, mining, construction work and so on.
There are many tasks which we think of as skilled that can be replaced today. Many diagnostic radiology tasks could be replaced by software more accurate than humans already. Entire fields of medicine could be replaced by computers with today's technology.
Of course, it would be a good thing if humans can be spared hard, unpleasant work. They would be able to focus on work that they enjoy where they can be creative. Scientists, artists, singers, composers, writers. We could all be what we want to be. But how would our economic systems adapt to a state of plenty?
It could go two ways. We could stay with the kind of capitalism of which the US is the most overt example. Find a job, work hard and you get paid. If you can't find a job or if you do not have the skills to do the jobs which are in demand then you're on your own. With increasing automation, more and more people become unemployed and descend into poverty while those who control the factories and the supply chains and establish legal claims to wealth get richer and richer. That is simply not sustainable. The Chinese science fiction writer, Liu Cixin, imagines a time in the not-so-distant future in which this trend is carried to its logical conclusion and one person controls all the wealth on the planet and everyone else lives at his mercy.
Or, we could change our systems to ensure that the basics are taken care of for everyone. Food, water, shelter, education, clothing, healthcare are available to everyone but, for the luxuries, one has to work. Work would be a choice, not an imposition. There would still be competition for the most desirable jobs but the highest remuneration would be for the jobs which require the most innovation and original thinking.
This is not a vision for the far distant future. I am 48 years old and I will probably see this decision made, in bits and pieces, all over the world, in my life time.
A little further in the future, we will probably, if we get past this first self-imposed trap, develop the kind of artificial intelligence that presently lies in the realms of science fiction. My favorite characters in any kind of literature are Asimov's R. Giskard Reventlov, an AI who died so that humanity may progress and R Daneel Olivaw, his friend who then guided humanity through that progress.
Of course, mechanical artificial intelligences with infinite patience and the ability to rebuild themselves would be ideal to explore the rest of the universe.
Might they decide that biological humans are dangerous, evil, irresponsible and need to be eradicated? Perhaps. Would they be right to do so? Probably. What do we know? We're only human. Maybe they would be compassionate enough to merely contain us. Keep us from doing harm. A human zoo.
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